Before the National Day, domestic soybean meal prices ushered in a wave of rising market, from the news point of view, South America, Brazil suffered a severe drought, soybean sowing progress is hindered, while the U.S. Gulf Coast region by Hurricane ‘Helen’ wreaked havoc, the market is worried about the damage to the infrastructure will affect soybean exports.
The National Day holiday CBOT soybean continued to decline, as of October 8, compared with the pre-holiday decline of 3.67%, dragging the domestic meal after the first day of trading fell sharply, the plate was once down to 3004 yuan / tonne, a drop of more than 4%. The current domestic and foreign soybean meal market mixed, how does the post-holiday soybean meal market run?
On the domestic market
Domestic soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter are expected to decrease in comparison with the ring, the supply pressure is expected to weaken; according to the relevant website research statistics, in October 2024, the domestic full sample of oil mills soybean arrivals are estimated to be 124 ships, a total of about 8.06 million tonnes. It is expected that 7.8 million tonnes in November and 8.5 million tonnes in December. the total preliminary statistics of soybean arrivals from September to November is about 23 million tonnes, which is higher than the level of the same period in recent three years.
In addition, June-August, according to customs data, arrivals of about 33.111 million tonnes, a monthly average of more than 10 million tonnes of huge arrivals pressure is no longer, the fourth quarter arrivals ring less than the previous quarter. Although into September before the domestic soybean, although relative to the previous months of a large number of supply has eased, but in the global production expectations, four quarters of the pattern of loose supply is difficult to change, the domestic soybean arrivals and supply pressure limits the magnitude of the rebound in soybean meal prices.
According to the relevant website on the main domestic oil mills survey data: dynamic full sample of oil mills during the National Day soybean machine rate of about 41.95%, up 5.65% compared with the same period last year. Soybean crushing volume was about 1,445,500 tonnes, an increase of 194,800 tonnes over the same period last year. Specifically, the region with the highest start-up rate during the National Day is the North China market, with the start-up rate expected to reach 65.49%, up 16.79% from last year. The highest crushing volume is still in the East China market, with a total crushing volume of about 365,100 tonnes during the National Day period, up 30,500 tonnes year-on-year, and the start-up rate up 11.05% year-on-year.
Due to the relatively loose supply of soybeans this year, in addition to a slight decline in the mainland markets of the two lakes, Jiangxi, Henan, etc., the opening rate of each of the remaining markets rose to varying degrees, with the northern and coastal markets being particularly obvious. During the National Day open measurement increase, but also for the National Day after the soybean meal market supply increased to the pressure of storage.
In foreign markets
Dry conditions in the U.S. Midwest helped field operations advance, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its weekly report on crop progress, showing that the U.S. soybean harvest rate stood at 47% as of the week of 6 October, higher than the market's expectation of 44% and well ahead of the five-year average level of 34%. However, the soybean growth rate of excellence declined, as the market expected 63%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but still in the same period since 2020 at the highest level. In addition, the South American soybean growing region had been due to dry weather continues to delay the progress of planting, but the near future will usher in a favourable rainfall, Maxar meteorologists said that the rainfall in southern Brazil is expected to increase, next week the rainfall will arrive in the northern part of the region.
Although, the U.S. dry weather and South America favourable rainfall put pressure on U.S. soybean futures, but the seasonal increase in U.S. soybean exports, as well as Brazilian soybean sowing progress is still lagging behind historical averages, the bottom of the U.S. soybean futures space to form an effective support. As of the week of October 3, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume of 1.43 million tonnes, compared with a week ago, a sharp surge of 110%, compared with the same period last year is also improved by 1.9%.AgRural said on Monday, as of October 3, Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sowing work is completed by 4.5%, higher than a week ago, 2%, but is still lower than a year ago, 10%.
Affected by the U.S. soybean harvest pressure as well as Brazilian soybean production areas ushered in the sowing of favourable rainfall, U.S. soybean prices weakened under pressure, but the U.S. soybean exports seasonal increase, and the progress of soybean sowing in South America is still lower than the level of the same period of time in history, to the formation of U.S. soybeans some support, the short-term CBOT soybeans to pay attention to the 1000 U.S. cents / bushels of support strength. Domestic soybean supply is loose, but the National Day holiday oil mill start-up rate fell, making soybean meal stocks have been reduced, and the digestion of inventory pressure still takes time, after the holiday downstream feed enterprises to maintain just need to replenish the library is mainly, strong supply and demand under the background of the weak, short-term soybean meal prices will still be under pressure to run mainly, and even meal to pay attention to the 3000 first-line mark.
Follow-up attention to South America's favourable rainfall persistence and domestic soybean meal stocks, the current market focus on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's October supply and demand report, the market estimates of soybean production and ending stocks or will be adjusted slightly downward, waiting for the report to come out to provide new guidance.
Source:CCM
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