China's demand for steel is expected to dive by at least 40 per cent by 2050, a government climate adviser in one of the world's biggest greenhouse-emitting countries says.
Dr Jiang Kejun, who leads environmental policy analysis at China's Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, says many heavy industrial products, including steel, are reaching their peak and will be used less under future clean energy programs. He told a Climate Commission function in Melbourne the need for steel is expected to decline from a peak of 610 million tonnes in 2020 to 360 million tonnes by 2050, along with a fall in the need for other products including glass, aluminium and cement.
A burgeoning clean energy movement in China includes an ambitious five-year plan to reduce energy intensity by 16 per cent, and carbon intensity by 17 per cent, by 2015. Some 12.5 million hectares of farmland is also expected to be transformed into forest by the same deadline. A trial of one of the world's biggest emissions trading schemes is planned across four pilot cities and two provinces, and low carbon development is earmarked for 13 other cities and provinces.
Dr Jiang says the boom presents opportunities for Australia, including its low-carbon building designs, which he says offer a good model for crowded metropolitan living. "China's cities are growing very quickly, we don't have much time to wait, we should do it right now, as soon as possible," he told AAP. He is particularly keen on bringing riverbank bicycle tracks to China, similar to those along Melbourne's Yarra River. And Dr Jiang confirmed China is closely watching the evolution of Australia's carbon pricing scheme, ahead of legislation to be introduced for a fixed price on carbon into parliament next Tuesday.
Climate Commissioner Roger Beale said China's five-year plan requires the republic to double its improvement in energy efficiency, forcing it to embark on initiatives "right across every sector". He said China's movement away from resource-intensive industries and an export-oriented economy would lead to a change towards a greener, more domestic focus.