October 11, 2012
UK wheat import to exceed export
For the first time in more than 10 years, the UK is expected to import more wheat than it exports this season.
Alexis Pouy？？, UK managing director at market analyst ODA, predicted wheat exports of one million tonnes and imports of 1.5 million tonnes. This represented 40% and 150% of the respective averages over the past five years.
Previous years have seen exports average around 2.5 million tonnes and imports of one million tonnes. ODA estimated UK wheat production was down to 13.6 million tonnes from 15.253 million tonnes in 2011, as a result of low yields.
ODA predicted yields down to 6.8 tonnes/hectare from an average of 7.7 tonnes/hectare, based on a survey of its farmer clients. This was slightly above the NFU figure of 6.7 tonnes/hectare, which is the worst in 25 years.
Consumption of wheat in the UK was likely to be up due to the Ensus bioethanol plant reopening, which was forecasted to be at full capacity.
However, animal feed consumption will be down because of low supply and high prices. Stocks at the end of this season will be 300,000 tonnes down on the previous year, at 1.3 million tonnes, said ODA.
Those farmers who sold forward their 2012 crop may be more hesitant this year, said Pouy？？, which could complicate relationships between growers and traders.
"Despite the bad harvest, wheat continues to be economically very good and oilseed rape plantings also may increase," said Pouy？？.
A falling malting barley premium reduces the incentive for some growers to grow barley, making a second wheat crop more profitable in some areas.