Bisphenol A (BPA), derivatives of phenol
and acetone, is mainly applied in producing high polymer materials like polycarbonate,
epoxy resin, polysulfone resin, poly phenylenethers resin, and unsaturated
polyesters resin. BPA are also used to produce fine chemicals products such as plasticizer,
flame retardant, antioxidant, rubber antioxidant, pesticides and coatings.
Source: Bing
Analysis
and prospect of BPA supply
There was few production equipment for BPA
before 2005, with the total BPA capacity of 58,000t/a in China in 2005. In the
past few years, the capacity of BPA kept increasing rapidly. By the end of
2015, the total BPA capacity in China reached 1.15 million t/a, with the supply
of 795,000 tonnes, up 37.1% YoY. The capacity utilization rate was 69.1%, down
8.8 percentage points compared to that in 2014.
By the end of 2015, there are 8 BPA
manufacturers in China, in which, the production equipment are quite new and are
all put into operation after 2005. In those newly expanded capacity, Chang Chun
Chemical (JiangSu) Co., Ltd. expanded the BPA capacity of 135,000 t/a, with the
total capacity reaching 270,000 t/a. Formosa Industries (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. and
Lihuayi Group Co., Ltd. (Lihuayi Group) together expanded BPA capacity of 270,000
t/a.
In the past few years, the BPA capacity
showed an upward trend in China. BPA production equipment with 150,000 t/a in
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation located in Ningbo has already been put into
operation in Feb. 2015. 120,000t/a from Lihuayi Group was to plan to be put
into operation at the end of 2015. Sinopec Sabic Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd
plans to expand BPA capacity with 240,000t/a. It is predicted that the total
BPA capacity would reach 1.3 million t/a in 2017.
Analysis
and prospect of BPA demand
The apparent consumption of BPA was 1.329
million tonnes in 2015 in China, up 23.6% YoY, with the self-sufficiency rate
of 59.8%, up 5.7 percentage points YoY. In the past few years, the apparent
consumption was driven by its downstream markets.
In 2008, the apparent consumption of BPA
was 630,000 tonnes and reached 1.329 million tonnes in 2015, with annual
average growth of 4% in 2011-2015.
Epoxy
resin: China has become one of the most important
producers and consumers of epoxy resin in the world. The downstream market of epoxy
resin includes coatings, CCL (copper-clad plate), and wind turbine blades. Due
to the increasing demand from electronic and electrical industry, coating
industry, and composite material industries in China, epoxy resin is developing
rapidly.
In coatings, the increasing constructions
of containers and vessels, investment on infrastructures like bridges have much
driven the application of epoxy resin.
In the past few years, China printed circuit
board industry has developed with the growth rate of over 15%. Since 2006,
China has replaced Japan to be the biggest producer of printed circuit board in
the world, which brought great demand for epoxy resin (electronic grade).
Wind power generating is the most potential
generating way in the world expect for hydroelectric generating and its
installed capacity is still increasing. Nowadays, wind turbine blades made from
reinforced resins is made of epoxy resin. That's to say, the rising demand in
the field of wind power generating would increase the consumption of BPA.
Polycarbonate: As for the downstream market of polycarbonate, the need for CD
would keep falling while the development of vehicles, electrical & electronic
products and construction industry would drive the need for polycarbonate.
Moreover, the import dependence rate of polycarbonate is over 75% currently;
thus, the demand for BPA from polycarbonate would keep increasing.
Due to the drive from consumptions of epoxy
resin and polycarbonate, the apparent consumption of BPA would be 1.4 million
tonnes in 2016.
Analysis
and prospect of BPA export and import
The import volume of BPA in 2015 was 534,000
tonnes in China, up 7.7% YoY, with the export value of USD 627.88 million, down
27.6% YoY, while the export volume of BPA was only 500 tonnes in China.
The BPA capacity expansion was not able to
stop the importing. The BPA import dependence rate was 40.2% in 2015. The trading
volume was 249,000 tonnes, accounting for 46.6% of the total import volume. The
import volume from South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan together accounted for nearly
80% of the total import volume. Among it, import volume from Thailand was
151,000 tonnes, accounting for 28.3% of the total; South Korea, 148,000 tonnes,
27.8%; Taiwan, 117,000 tonnes, 22%.
With its import volume accounting for 34.6%
of the total, Shanghai City imported most volume of BPA in China in China;
Jiangsu Province came next, with its import volume accounting for 22.4% of the
total.
Analysis
and prospect of BPA market price
The price of BPA collapsed to around RMB7,100/t
in Aug. 2015, a record low since 2010. In fact, the historically lowest price
of BPA was RMB6,800/t in 2008 after the financial crisis. That's to say, the
low price in Aug. 2015 came really close to the lowest price in 2008. Even worse,
at the end of Oct. 2015, the market price of BPA fell to RMB6,600/t, a new historical
low.
Due to different factors, the price of BPA
showed a downward trend in 2015. In term of cost, three new production equipment
of phenolic ketone had been put into operation successfully, thus the cost wasn't
able to support the BPA price and the price kept falling. In term of supply, BPA
was also produced successfully, along with the increasing import volume, there
was still enough supply in the market.
In term of demand, the epoxy resin industry
developed quite slowly and there was no obvious demand for BPA. Though there
was new capacity for polycarbonate, the operation rate was still low and there
was limited need for BPA.
However, the market still looks beneficial
for BPA. The increasing capacity of its downstream market, epoxy resin and polycarbonate,
would drive the demand for BPA. Also, the expanding capacity of its upstream market,
phenol and acetone, would assure enough supply of raw material for BPA. The prices
of the raw material are likely to fall, which would reduce the production cost
for BPA and increase BPA's production profit. Moreover, there would emerge new
chemical enterprises owning the industry chain of phenol, acetone, BPA, epoxy
resin, which would be beneficial for the development of BPA.
*The article is edited and translated by
CCM. The original one comes from Economic Analysis of China Petroleum and
Chemical Industry.
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