China's corn product industry not only faces great challenges but also enjoys great opportunities in 2011, against the background of the high cost of raw materials, domestic inflation, government's strict supervision or even restriction, as well as some booming downstream markets. Affected by these factors, some corn product producers have to restrain their production or even shut down their plants, but others manage to gain great profit in 2011, according to CCM International's December issue of Corn Products China News.
Corn, as the most important raw material of corn products, always attracts abundant attention. And corn price had run an uptrend in general from Jan. to Sept. 2011 majorly because of its insufficient supply. But the newly harvested corn this year, whose output is estimated to reach 184.5 million tonnes, up 4.1% over that in 2010, has turned the price to slip since Oct. 2011. Overall, the average domestic market price of corn increased by 18.6% to USD363/t in Dec. 2011 compared with that in Jan. 2011, partly caused by which, corn products' average price also rose by 8% during the same period.
Besides, the generally sound local economic environment and stable development of food, beverage and feed industries also support the price increase of corn products. In detail, China achieved GDP growth rate of 9.7%, 9.5% and 9.1% in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2011 respectively, and it's expected that the annual growth rate of GDP can average at 9.2% and 8.9% for 2011 and 2012 respectively (it was 10.3% in 2010) according to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In addition, the averaged 5.5% CPI and 6.4% PPI during Jan. and Nov. signify that "inflation" is the major word to describe China's macro economic performance in 2011. Moreover, in accordance with the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the output of food industry and beverage industry during the first ten months this year increased by 16.8% and 18.7% respectively compared with those in the same period of 2010; in the light of the Ministry of Agriculture of China, feed's output is predicted to reach 169 million tonnes in the whole year of 2011, up 4% over that in 2010.
By dint of the above general economic environment and some promising market situations, a few corn products have enjoyed fast development in 2011, such as starch sugar, especially HFCS (high fructose corn syrup), some amino acids, like lysine. Take HFCS as an example, due to the insufficient supply of sucrose and its high price in 2011, HFCS' demand and price have enjoyed obvious increase, attracting lots of producers to enter into this industry or expand the production of HFCS, whose capacity all over the country reaches about 3 million t/a in 2011, up 38.9% over that in 2010.
However, some corn products have suffered bad market situation in 2011, like vitamin c (VC). Owing to VC's terrible oversupply, domestic and export prices of VC have maintained a low level in 2011, resulting in great loss of VC producers. And insiders are looking forward to the launch of encouraging governmental policies to turn around the stagnant market, like a new VC entrance threshold.
As for governmental policies, corn deep-processing industry has been restricted to some extent in 2011, and the following are highlights.
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As for the forecast in 2012, policies, market and industry environment make 2012 a key year for corn products' development. With the expected growth of China's economy in 2012, domestic corn product industry will still boom, but production costs will remain a problem, whilst corn pricewill still run at a high level due to the tight relationship between corn's supply and demand, even though corn's output enjoys a bumper harvest in 2011. Besides, governmental restrictions will be still the leading factor to affect the industry, while it's a great opportunity for large enterprises to develop further by merging small ones.
Source: Corn Product China News 1112
http://www.cnchemicals.com/Newsletter/NewsletterDetail_6.html
Content of Corn Products China News 1112:
VC's demand structure should be changed in the future
Chinese corn products Imp. & Exp. analysis in October 2011
Lysine price in China maintains downtrend in Dec. 2011
Corn starch price in China still maintains downtrend in Dec. 2011
New policies to restrict development of fuel ethanol using grain as feedstock in China
New guide about domestic high technology industry with priority to develop forwarded
Chinese government strengthens support for small and micro enterprises
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Corn Products China News, a monthly publication issued by CCM International on 20th of every month, revealsthe driving force of news storiesand deeply analyzes the influence of trends and dynamicson domestic and international corn deep processing industry.
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