Summary:The Chinese milk powder industry features a relatively high market concentration, with numerous well-known brands occupying a large market share. However, some dairy enterprises faced certain pressures in 2024. Meanwhile, the upstream and downstream of the industry are undergoing numerous changes. Upstream, there is an oversupply of raw milk and a downward trend in prices; downstream, the sales channels are constantly expanding and consumer demands are becoming increasingly diversified, driving the development of products towards high-end and customized directions. Although the decline in the number of newborns has brought some impacts, with the influence of factors such as consumption upgrading, the demand for high-quality and high-value-added milk powder products remains strong, and the overall future performance of the industry is expected to be further improved.
Enterprise situation
Based on the market observations of the CCM
market intelligence platform, the market concentration of China's milk powder
industry is relatively high at present, and many well-known domestic and
foreign brands such as Yili, Feihe, Junlebao, Mengniu, Wyeth, Mead Johnson and
so on occupy a large market share.
Some large dairy enterprises' milk powder
business faced certain pressure in 2024. For example, according to the data of
the first half of 2024, the overall revenue of 26 listed dairy enterprises in
A-shares and H-shares decreased by 7.83% year-on-year. However, at the same
time, some dairy enterprises have achieved certain results after actively
adjusting their strategies. For example, China Feihe's performance in the third
quarter was relatively good, and both its revenue and profit increased to some
extent.
Enterprises continue to launch high-end,
organic, special formula and other infant formula milk powder as well as
customized products for different consumer groups such as the middle-aged and
the elderly to meet the increasingly diverse needs of consumers. Yili has
launched the "Tall Teenager Zhuangyuan Student Milk Powder" and
"Beichang Chinese-style Warm Sheep Milk Powder"; Beingmate's
"Key Technology for the Preparation of Instant Infant Formula Milk Powder
Based on the Lipid Composition of Chinese Breast Milk" was selected as a
major scientific and technological innovation achievement in the dairy industry
in 2024.
Upstream and downstream
Upstream:
Affected by factors such as the previous
production capacity expansion, the current supply of raw milk is relatively
excessive. The price of raw milk has been continuously declining. Some dairy
farms are facing tight capital chains, and situations like structural
optimization and production capacity clearance have emerged, such as selling
some low- and medium-yield dairy cows.
Large-scale dairy cow farming is the
mainstream trend in China's raw milk industry. Enterprises like Youran Dairy,
Modern Dairy, and Ausnutria Dairy Group have all developed large-scale farming
and become the main forces in China's raw milk industry.
Downstream:
Online e-commerce platforms and offline
mother and baby stores remain important channels for milk powder sales, and the
market share of online channels continues to grow. Meanwhile, brands are also
actively exploring new sales channels and models, such as social e-commerce and
live streaming e-commerce.
New-generation parents pay more attention
to scientific parenting and refined feeding, and have higher demands for
personalized and refined products, which has driven the growth in demand for
high-end, organic, special formula and other infant formula milk powders. In
addition, the market for middle-aged and elderly milk powder is also gradually
emerging.
Future expectations
According to the CCM industry research
report, although the decline in the number of newborns has had a certain impact
on the overall market demand for infant formula milk powder, with the upgrading
of consumption and the diversification of consumer needs, the demand for
high-quality and high-value-added products remains robust.
The CRI Research Institute forecasts that
the market size of China's infant formula milk powder will be approximately
136.67 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to reach about 125.554 billion yuan
by 2030.
Huatai Securities pointed out that looking
ahead to 2025, catalyzed by the notice on consumption policies to stimulate the
dairy industry jointly issued by the seven ministries and commissions, the
demand for dairy products is expected to improve, and the increase in the
concentration of the milk powder industry will remain the main theme.
Haitong International believes that as the
consumption recovery gradually warms up, normal-temperature liquid milk is
expected to resume growth under a low base, and the supply and demand of raw
milk are expected to reach a new balance. It is expected that the overall
performance of the industry will be further improved.
About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China's agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.